Prepared by the researche : Amr Rashad Ismail – Expert in African Affairs
DAC Democratic Arabic Center GmbH
Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has not enjoyed stability but rather plunged into a cycle of political and ethnic conflicts, particularly between President Salva Kiir and his deputy Riek Machar. Despite the signing of a peace agreement between the two parties in 2018, tensions continue to rise, most recently marked by clashes in Upper Nile State and arrests among the opposition, threatening a return to full-scale civil war. The crisis is further complicated by the approaching elections, which have been repeatedly delayed, deteriorating conditions in neighboring Sudan, and external interventions that continue to fuel the conflict. Ethnic strife between the Dinka and Nuer communities remains one of the most prominent sources of division, amid weak state institutions, ongoing fractures within the army, and the presence of armed militias. The current situation places the unity government under immense pressure and raises critical questions about the ability of both local and international actors to prevent the country from sliding into another devastating war.
Causes of Escalating Internal Tensions in South Sudan
South Sudan is witnessing an alarming escalation in political tensions between President Salva Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar, amid a series of mutual accusations and abrupt decisions that have undermined the peace agreement signed in 2018. Although the rivalry between the two leaders is not new, it has resurfaced with renewed intensity following accusations by the government that Machar’s forces were involved in acts of violence through the so-called “White Army” militia, composed mainly of members of the Nuer ethnic group. The crisis reached a peak when these forces allegedly attacked a military barracks in the town of Nasir, sparking violent clashes with troops loyal to Kiir—an event that rekindled memories of the civil war between 2013 and 2018. In response, Machar escalated his rhetoric after a number of his key allies were dismissed by the president, threatening to withdraw from the power-sharing agreement and demanding the reinstatement of two dismissed officials within a short deadline. This growing rift reveals the fragility of the alliance between the two factions and highlights the deep-rooted nature of the crisis, which is increasingly defined by ethnic rivalry between the Dinka and Nuer over power, wealth, and influence.
The crisis in South Sudan extends beyond the internal political rivalry between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, as regional and external factors further complicate the situation. The conflict in neighboring Sudan plays a significant role in destabilizing South Sudan, particularly amid reports that the Sudanese army is providing support to Nuer militias in Upper Nile State in an attempt to expand its regional influence against its rivals in the Rapid Support Forces. These interventions suggest the growing risk of South Sudan becoming a proxy battleground for competing Sudanese factions, which could ignite new waves of conflict within the country. At the same time, persistent ethnic divisions continue to fuel unrest; the historic rivalry between the Dinka and Nuer remains a central driver of violence, exacerbated by the presence of more than 60 other ethnic groups, making national unity an increasingly elusive goal. This social fragmentation, combined with the failure to unify the military and the repeated postponement of elections, reinforces a deeply polarized political climate and heightens the risk of a return to full-scale violence.
Potential Consequences of the Conflict in South Sudan
The situation in South Sudan is heading toward a dangerous turning point due to the intensifying political and military tensions between rival factions, especially in the wake of failed peace efforts and the ineffective implementation of existing agreements. This ongoing deterioration has triggered serious concerns within the international community, as the United Nations and several Western countries have expressed fears of a potential state collapse and institutional breakdown if the violence continues and spreads. The targeting of UN missions and the escalation of conflict in strategic cities like Malakal have raised the likelihood of a full-scale war that could be extremely difficult to contain. External pressure is mounting on President Salva Kiir’s government, with widespread condemnation of attacks on civilians and international facilities. In response, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have mobilized to salvage what remains of the peace process. At the same time, it has become increasingly evident that the 2018 peace agreement is at risk of complete collapse, having lost momentum amid ongoing conflicts and deep political dysfunction within state institutions.
On the humanitarian and economic front, the situation continues to worsen at an alarming rate. Millions of South Sudanese live below the poverty line and rely almost entirely on international aid to survive. Malnutrition, particularly among children, has become a growing crisis, while repeated floods and forced displacements threaten to decimate the country’s already fragile infrastructure. The ongoing conflict with neighboring Sudan and escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa have only compounded the challenges facing South Sudan’s fragile government. The influx of refugees and internally displaced persons is intensifying competition over limited resources, heightening social and communal tensions. Economically, persistent unrest has led to the collapse of the national currency and a dramatic surge in the cost of basic goods, with inflation reaching unprecedented levels. Crude oil exports, the country’s primary revenue source, have virtually come to a halt. This economic collapse could ignite widespread social unrest, adding yet another layer to the political and ethnic crises already gripping the nation, and turning South Sudan into a regional flashpoint with no clear path toward peace or stability in the foreseeable future.
The crisis in South Sudan has sparked a wave of regional and international reactions, most notably Uganda’s military intervention in support of President Salva Kiir’s government against what it described as an attempted coup. In contrast, the United States adopted a cautious stance, withdrawing some of its personnel and warning of a potential collapse of the peace process. The African Union and several Western countries expressed concern over the targeting of the opposition, particularly following the house arrest of Riek Machar, viewing such actions as threats to ethnic cohesion and regional stability. In response, IGAD and the African Union launched a joint initiative aimed at pushing forward stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, discussions are underway regarding the potential prosecution of Machar, further heightening political tension. These developments underscore the mounting challenges facing South Sudan’s fragile peace amid growing warnings of a worsening conflict.
In conclusion, amid the ongoing escalation in South Sudan, concerns are mounting that the country is heading toward a new phase of instability, threatening to undermine all efforts made toward peace since 2018. The persistent political tensions between President Salva Kiir and his deputy Riek Machar, coupled with regional interventions and deep-rooted ethnic divisions, make it difficult to envision a swift resolution to the crisis.
