Drones Reshape the Balance of Power in the Sahel Conflict

Prepared by the researche : Amr Rashad Ismail – Expert in African Affairs
DAC Democratic Arabic Center GmbH
The Sahel region is witnessing a troubling surge in security tensions, as jihadist groups enter a new phase of confrontation by adopting drones as a primary weapon in their repeated attacks against both state militaries and civilians. This qualitative shift—fueled by low-cost, commercially available technologies—has upended the balance of power in a region already marked by acute political and military fragility. Extremist groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and ISIS in the Greater Sahara no longer rely solely on ambushes or improvised explosive devices; they now possess “eyes in the sky,” complicating national forces’ operations and exposing deep flaws in deterrence and surveillance capabilities. Against this backdrop, fears are growing that the Sahel could become a permanent battleground for asymmetric warfare, mirroring the experiences of the Middle East.
Unprecedented Escalation
Since 2022, the Central Sahel has witnessed a sharp escalation in the use of civilian drones by terrorist groups, which have deployed them in suicide attacks targeting military sites across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Notable operations include the assault on the Malian army command center and the Wagner Group base in Léré, as well as a deadly ISIS drone strike in May 2025 that killed 64 soldiers in Niger. In Burkina Faso alone, over a dozen drone attacks have been recorded. This escalation signals a qualitative shift in the groups’ tactics and a rapid adaptation to technology for executing asymmetric and highly effective strikes.
Drone use in the Sahel has evolved far beyond surveillance. Armed groups now conduct precision airstrikes using explosive-laden drones or kamikaze UAVs. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) first deployed drones in 2023 against a local militia in central Mali, and later used them to breach defensive perimeters around towns in Burkina Faso. In the 2024 battles of Tinzaouaten, Mali, drones inflicted significant damage on both government forces and Wagner mercenaries—underscoring these groups’ growing proficiency in modifying and weaponizing drones to enhance their offensive capabilities.
Drones offer terrorist groups a logistical edge due to their small size, ease of cross-border smuggling through unmonitored terrain, and availability at low cost under the guise of civilian use. These factors have enabled militants to carry out remote precision strikes against targets such as Wagner forces and the Malian army in Timbuktu and Amachach between 2024 and 2025. The situation highlights how these organizations are exploiting weak border control and the accessibility of dual-use technologies to conduct high-frequency operations in a fragile security environment.
Although the Sahel Alliance—comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—announced plans in May 2025 to enhance security cooperation, their current capacities remain inadequate to counter drone threats, particularly in the absence of low-altitude radar systems and appropriate air defense platforms. Even with access to Turkish Bayraktar drones, military convoys and camps remain exposed. There is an urgent need to regulate drone trade, enact legislation modeled on the Wassenaar Arrangement for dual-use goods, and adopt social approaches aimed at dismantling the support environments that enable these extremist networks.
Complicating the Mission of National Armies
The growing reliance of terrorist groups in the Sahel on drones has imposed complex security challenges on national armies, allowing militants to bypass conventional defenses and carry out precision airstrikes without the need for ground incursions. This tactical evolution has eroded the armies’ ability to achieve surprise, particularly as drones are now being used for real-time surveillance of troop movements. These developments unfold within a fragile political context marked by the withdrawal of Western forces and declining international support—conditions that have created a vacuum for armed groups to exploit, enabling them to strike at the heart of the region’s already fragile military and security infrastructure.
Reports indicate that militant groups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have successfully converted commercially available civilian drones into lethal weapons with minor modifications. Their small size and low-altitude flight make them difficult to detect and intercept. Local armies lack adequate counter-drone systems due to their high cost and technical complexity, leaving military bases vulnerable to surprise attacks that result in significant human and material losses. The absence of effective early warning systems further hampers the ability to respond preemptively, undermines public trust in national forces as security guarantors, and grants militant groups a potent tool of intimidation.
What is unfolding signals a shift from traditional insurgency to hybrid warfare tactics akin to those used in Middle Eastern conflict zones, where drones have become central to asymmetric combat strategies. There is strong reason to believe that these groups have benefited from external technical support or informal training, as well as from access to black market arms networks stretching from Libya to Chad. In this porous environment, conventional armies are struggling to keep pace with the rapid evolution of enemy tactics, turning the Sahel into a theater of aerial attrition—where states face a technological and military challenge far beyond their current deterrent capabilities.
Starvation Another Weapon in the Arsenal of Armed Groups
Armed groups in the African Sahel are increasingly relying on starvation as a strategic weapon to subjugate local populations and instill fear—paralleling their growing use of drones in tactical assaults. While drones serve to undermine military deterrence, food blockades are deployed to erode civilian morale and strip the state of its legitimacy in the eyes of its people. Cities are besieged, supply lines are cut off, and “zakat” is forcibly collected, leading to mass displacement and the creation of security vacuums that these groups exploit to entrench their power. The combination of military pressure and deliberate starvation reflects a sophisticated model of hybrid warfare that extends beyond the battlefield to dominate the very essentials of civilian life.
These groups also actively sabotage food security by targeting commercial trucks and supply routes, particularly in landlocked countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—turning hunger into a form of collective punishment for those suspected of cooperating with the state. This mode of economic violence deepens civilian suffering and renders entire communities hostages in a conflict where survival tools are out of reach. Groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Al-Shabaab, and ISIS have weaponized hunger to tighten their grip on populations, taking advantage of weak governments and the absence of effective deterrence. As drone operations escalate, a full-spectrum pressure strategy emerges—combining firepower with food control to establish a comprehensive system of physical and psychological domination.
Drones Are Reshaping the Rules of War in the Sahel
The use of drones by armed groups in the Sahel marks a new chapter in regional warfare. These unmanned systems have shattered the traditional reliance on ambushes and roadside bombs, enabling sudden aerial strikes that are difficult to predict or counter. This change in the nature of engagement has diminished the effectiveness of conventional armies, which now struggle to contain attacks, particularly in remote areas. Drones allow for offensive operations without risking fighters, granting terrorist groups a temporary battlefield advantage that confuses military forces and inflicts painful losses. War is no longer confined to the ground; it now incorporates low-cost, high-impact technologies that are disrupting traditional power dynamics.
With national armies suffering from limited technical capabilities and a lack of short-range air defense systems, terrorist groups have found drones to be an ideal tool for operational superiority in a fragile security environment and across unguarded borders. These devices are easily acquired from commercial markets or smuggled in, and can be modified with basic tools to carry explosives—making them a cheap yet effective weapon. Their utility extends beyond attacks, encompassing surveillance and reconnaissance, enabling militant groups to plan strikes with precision and close the intelligence gap with state forces. In this context, drones become a strategic asset that redefines the contours of conflict, transforming it into a long-term “smart war of attrition” in which armed groups leverage both security vacuums and tactical adaptability.
Conclusion, the accelerating use of drones by militant groups in the Sahel signals a fundamental shift in the nature of conflict—one that portends a more fragile and volatile future. Leveraging low-cost and easily smuggled technology, these groups have achieved tactical superiority in the face of dwindling international support and weak deterrent capabilities among local forces. When drone warfare is combined with deliberate starvation policies, a new form of hybrid war emerges—one that targets both the battlefield and the psyche and livelihoods of civilian populations. Unless urgent steps are taken to modernize defense systems, strengthen regional cooperation, and cut off funding and arms flows, the region is likely to face broader waves of violence and a prolonged war of attrition.